We are entering the final two rounds of the Champions League season 2024/2025 League Phase. Who will proceed? We have run 10000 simulations on these final two rounds so you don’t have to, and here are the results.
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A quick reminder on the new format:
image from sky.it
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So far, we know that both Liverpool and Barcelona are certain of at minimum a spot in the Play-Offs. Even though Liverpool won all their matches, there is a theoretical chance they might fall out of the Round of 16. This didn’t happen in any of our 10000 simulations, however.
RB Leipzig, Young Boys as well as Slovan Bratislava are eliminated. What’s left on the table for these teams is money. There are the lucrative bonuses for victories (€2.1m per victory), as well as a bonus tied to their final ranking in the League Phase (each increase in rank results in an extra €275k).
All together, relative to their total squad value, this can be a significant amount. For instance, Slovan Bratislava’s squad value is currently estimated at €29m on Transfermarkt. In their best case scenario (which occured 10x in 10000 simulations) of two wins and an accompanying 27th place, they could take home an additional €6.95m.
We expect two changes to the current set of virtually qualified teams for the Round of 16. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are predicted to jump to spot 5 and 6 respectively, qualifying directly for Round of 16, whereas Brest is expected to end 9th, and Lille to fall from 8th place to 15th.
✅ 🇩🇪 Germany in…
❌ 🇫🇷 France out…